Epistemology, Poker and Health

Epistemology is the branch of philosophy that deals with knowledge.  What do we mean when we say we 'know' something?  When Carl Jung said 'I do not believe in God, I know...', did he mean the same thing as I do when I say 'I know that 3 plus 4 are seven', or 'I know that object is blue'.

There are two interesting tracks in Epistemology relevant to Poker.  I will cover just one now (and very briefly).  The second is skepticism which I will get to another day.

It has to do with two different 'kinds of knowledge' - conceptual knowledge (know about), and practical knowledge (know how).

Lets quickly take losing weight.  We all (conceptually) know about losing weight - fewer calories and more exercise (broadly).  Some of the fattest people could probably reel off the calorie count of half the items in the supermarket.  It does no good.

'Know how' is the ability to do that which we 'know about.'  What becomes interesting is someone who says, 'I know HOW to exercise, I just don't'.  We should treat this skeptically - KNOWING HOW to exercise is more than just knowing what to do at the gym, it is KNOWING HOW to get your body to the gym.

Take a Poker parallel.  I may 'know' that I can check-raise bluff this river profitably - villain never has more than a pair.  But, if in the moment, I freeze, 'wait for a better spot' or otherwise chicken out, do we really know HOW TO check raise bluff rivers?  If we can't overcome the anxiety (of putting in a lot of money with no hand), or the habit (of sitting on the couch rather than going to the gym 3-4x per week), can we accurately say we KNOW HOW rather than KNOW ABOUT?

The second point is that conceptual knowledge can be the enemy of personal change.  This is important, because you could say that CONCEPTUAL KNOWLEDGE is  the bedrock or foundation of practical knowledge.  In fact, it can be the enemy of PRACTICAL KNOWLEDGE.  How many times do we wave off advice, ignore criticism, or opportunities to learn and change thinking 'I KNOW THAT'.  I see this in my programs on personal effectiveness (time management) - people 'know about' time management (because it is pretty simple), but they suck at it.  They let the fact that the CONCEPTS are simple get in the way of the hard work of applying them.

When it comes to personal change, improving, learning, growing, KNOWING ABOUT is the booby prize.

Reno - Vegas trip report and update

Flying up to Reno from Vegas, for my first trip there, and my first Heartland was fun.  I loved being near the mountains in Reno - a reminder of how beautiful Tahoe (next door) is.

Poker went fabulously, I played 2 130 dollar satellites and won one, which put me in a 500 dollar satellite which i won easily (OMG satties are such gr eat value - from the 'i only play QQ+ guys that get blinded out' to the people who limp-call pre and then fold flops with 8BB.  to people who won't call shoves with AJ (i figured i was racing - yeah, right!)
I was basically card dead in the main - which can be good - because i can't spew off chips will silly steals....  finally some old guy put all his dough in with AQ when I had QQ (there was also a TT in there)... all of a sudden we are in the money....
sadly, at the final table, with 55k in sight, the eventual winner - quite the worst player i've ever seen - had the following action to him.... all in (from 8 BB stack), all in (from 15 BB stack - me) and he had J9s... he was covered by bigger stack...  ' well this is my lucky hand' - i call.  board K 8 4, turn Q, river T.... I'm crippled down to 3 BB and run into QQ three hands later.  still Im 7k better off...  had i held up, i would have been chip leader with 5 left and would have run them over...

after a nice year-end break with some excellent online success, i headed out to the circuit in Caesars...  to cut it very short, i limped onto the final table 10th in chips but managed second for 25k.

two days later, i was deep in a deep stack....  one of the most aggro donkeys i've ever seen was chip leader with 1/3 of chips with 20 left. he is on my left on button, i pick up 77, he 3 bets (like every hand), i jam and a) he has AK (how someone who is 3 betting every hand has ak now), and gets there....

still another 1200 bucks...  my backer very very happy...

don't feel i ran that super well.... bounced out of one tournament (the 1600) when set was run down by draw, and out of another when AA was cracked by AA...

I did play my socks off - and i really am becoming a strong live player... people (pros) tell me that.... lets keep it up...

however, bad news is my health practices deteriorated in dec, jan and feb - i finally hit rock bottom this monday - bought an e-cigarette, got back on the various anti-psychotics (just kidding ADD) i'm supposed to take, got a new CEO-type for Healthy Poker, and finished 2012 goals - which include losing this 10kilos and winning 500k at poker...

my other work (university teaching) has recently collapsed - so for right now - unless i go back into the business world, poker is it....

better be healthy then, and keep running ok....

Poker Stars and US players

Pokerstars and US players

Throughout the post April 15 debacle, PS has behaved admirably, returning funds, and complying with DOJ wishes.

However, apart from the FAQs, there have been no updates since about April: my US friends are completely in the dark…

I’m an expert in corporate strategy, and even in the face of uncertainty it is important to retain customer relationships.

A monthly update – even 2-3 lines - such as

‘We continue to work with the DOJ…

‘We have made a proposal to the DOJ to…

‘No clear timetable for return…

‘We have a hearing on x date to explore y…

That sort of thing builds trust and loyalty.

Im sure the issue is complex, but I'd love to recommend what should have been done years ago - negotiate a settlement with the US government that makes happy the tax authorities, and legislators concerned with moral hazard.

-        Aid US tax authorities by reporting US player income (some sort of 1099 as issued by banks)

-        Reinforce the notion of very strong ‘no minors’ and ‘no non poker gaming’ safeguards

-        Don’t take credit cards (at first), this reinforces the safety notion that ‘dad’ can’t quietly go broke by gambling on the family credit cards

-        Develop superior money laundering safeguards

-        Offer to pay corporate taxes on % of income generated in the US (PS operates through US subsidiary)

-        Plead ‘mea culpa’ to the charges, pay the fines and move on – you are aware how much you are losing in US income monthly..

As the best run of the sites, the above should be trivial.

PS is simply the best poker site by a great margin... Lets get you back operating ASAP.

A few months ago, I published an article on the Healthy Poker site (www.healthypoker.com) which I'm re-posting here.  Here is the introduction, and there is a link below.

Omar: “I don’t know about cards, yo, but I reckon these four fives beat a full house.”

Marlo: “That’s my money.”

Omar: “Man, money ain’t got no owners, just spenders.”

Omar, anti-hero from The Wire, holds up Marlo’s Poker game. Marlo protests that the money in the pot is his. Omar disabuses him of that idea.

We think are comfortably ahead on the flop, the turn is a blank and we fire when checked to. Now villain repops for the rest of his stack and most of ours. We only beat a bluff and we require a dispassionate and rational analysis of the probability that villain is bluffing. Yet if we’ve invested 2/3 of our stack, such unbiased rational analysis is extremely difficult. Loss aversion, a very useful attribute on the Savannah five hundred thousand years ago, inevitably biases our decision.

A rational analysis requires us only to consider the potential return on future costs, the amount required to call villain, (and the expected value of calling that amount, weighing his percentage of bluffs against made hands) yet behavioral economists have repeatedly demonstrated a systematic cognitive bias toward weighting historical costs in our decision making.

What we have put in the pot already is (should be) completely irrelevant to how much we should put in now. Having bet pre-flop, flop, turn and river, giving up to a shove should not be influenced by how much we have put in. Yet, psychologists and economist assure us, it does. 

An unhealthy attachment to the money in the pot remains.

If you think you can and do act optimally in such situations, consider the examples below and see whether they might apply more at the Poker table than you would care to imagine.

This sunk cost fallacy (or error) appears everywhere: the value at which we would sell a car or house should be unrelated to how much we paid; our decision to stay until the end or leave a horrible movie should depend only on the relative value of the remaining time and not what we paid for the tickets; Britain and France’s decision to continue Concorde development should have been based exclusively on the economic prospects for the project and not how much had already been invested; in stock trading, future buy-sell decisions should be made independently of whether we own the stock, or have an unrealized loss or gain.

http://www.healthypoker.com/live/2011/09/systematic-cognitive-error-in-poker-part-1-the-sunk-cost-fallacy/

Humanist thanksgiving prayer

I was always asked to do the praying bit at Thanksgiving dinner, because once upon a time I was 'the religious one'.  Truthfully, I alwasy stumbled over the G-word.  A theist friend said 'you atheist have nothing to be thankful to' - and I thought 'the hell I don't'.  So here is my shot at a little prayer.  Modify and use as you like.  It is original.

Thanksgiving

We give thanks for the farmers and other workers who brought this food to our table, and to Mother Earth for the abundance we enjoy.

We give thanks to the men and women who worked hard toward our ideal of a fair society, life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness and who make possible the freedoms we enjoy today.

We give thanks to the unheard, who because they have the least possessions, have the smallest voice.

We give thanks for our health, for the people who work tirelessly to keep our air, food and water clean, and to the men and women who devote their lives to healing.

We thank those who still hold a vision of a just society: where those who want have a chance to, one day, want less, and those with plenty do what they can to uplift those with little.

We give thanks to the people of science who work to broaden our understanding of the workings of our world, and to the people of letters and culture who enrich and deepen our lives.

We give thanks for families, for our own, for the closeness and love we feel today, and to those who went before, paving the way, and preparing the soil for the prosperity of those we love today.

Today we give special remembrance and thanks to the men and women who leave to fight wars they may not understand and to their families who have to reconcile their loss with the senselessness.

Finally, we give thank for the privilege it is to be human – for the minds that allow us to exploit or be caretakers of our world and to the growing wisdom to make that choice well.

Paul Gibbons

What this blog will be about

Once upon a time, I had a blog that contain all my writing from everything that interests me.  One aspect of that was consulting to Fortune 100 corporations, and my left-wing politics, poker travels and troubles, and generally diasporic lifestyle create an impression they don't value.


So, because I love writing, and want to keep friends updated with thinking, travels, winnings and losings, great ideas, etc

So here is a list of subjects:

Poker travelogue
PAULGIBBO poker updates
Great (philosophical) quotations
Poker and Philosophy
Healthy Poker
Politics