110k in wins... Fear of success: How big an effect nearing final tables?

It is mystifying to me how someone can play (presumably good) Poker for three days, and get within striking distance of $100k, and then completely lose their mind.  I was the lucky beneficiary of four such instances, and am $100k better off mostly as a result.

With 30 left, someone with a substantial chip position decided that A3o on a board of A875 with three spades was worth a shove (no spade).  With 15 left, someone in about 7^th place (maybe 15bb), decided that 53s was worth a shove from the hijack.  With 12 left, someone in 2^nd place decided that 55 with 30bb was an open shove from the button with the chip leader (me) on his immediate left.  As chip leader, I guess I would shrug fold AK to a 30bb open-shove (I had only 40bb) as ICM probably means I need 2-1 to call (maybe more) and this is always a pair (I mean there is no sensible value-range here, but it is 99% pairs).  However, I woke up with AA and held.

I’ve won plenty of tournaments, but never have I had such extraordinary spews (for entire stacks) thrust my way.  In addition to these amazing gifts, I picked up blinds and antes from late position steals relentlessly.  (Another aspect of run-good is people not having reshove hands!)

The mechanism that has people tilt may not just be fear of failure.  Nearing the end, emotions excitement and anxiety, run high.  From my recollection all of these horrible plays were ‘insta’ – no real thought given to stacks, ICM, ranges and the like. It is almost as if people become giddy at the end.

I am prone to the same thing – in fact, when I spew, it is almost always an insta-spew.  I’m laboriously slow at the best of times, but at the final table, I slow down even more – if that irritates some players, excellent!  The ability to do this comes from years of high-level bridge.  In that sphere I was famously spewy on some occasions – but produced outstanding results because when the stakes went up, I got better.

A few good hands

The most interesting is a hand from four-way action.  I had 12m in chips, 2^nd place had 9m, and there were two stacks of around 2m.  The blinds were 150/300k.  (As you can see, I’m not in bad shape.) 

Take my opponent’s hand.  In second place you open for 700k with 99 UTG four-handed.  The small blind, an older, very sound, and very aggressive player (that would be me) 3-bets to 2m. (You have about three hours of history, but haven’t played many pots.)  (Pay jumps are as usual, 25k for 4^th, 100k for 1^st.) (He has not 3-bet you once, but he has 3 bet others aggressively.)

I think this is a fascinating ICM problem.  Clearly folding is absurdly exploitable as we are top of our range, calling is possible, but we are left with and SPR of 2.  (Can we fold an overpair?  Can we fold on Qxx dry board?)  What is our plan if we call and get the 100% c-bet?  On which flops will we stack off?  Jamming is clearly the 100% play with even stacks, and perhaps here?  How often will villain want to stack off?  I think calling is by far the worst option.  We are just going to have to make a disgusting decision on the flop.  

Villain is hammering the short stacks (open jamming a lot), and there is 50k between 2^nd and 4^th.    I would have shoved 99 without a moment’s thought (I am an online player after all).

We call (puke), the flop comes K 8 3 rainbow and villain bets 2m into 4.4m.  To cut a long story short, we call, villain bet 3m into 8.4 on a 2 turn, and jammed a blank river. We called, he showed AA and we lost about 30k relative to tournament EV.  Villain (the author) then had 20m out of 25m in play 3 handed and the rest is history. 

Views vary on what to pre (nobody sees a flop)

1.       Let him run over us until they bust – there is no evidence that he is overdoing that – and he is playing hard against the shorties.
2.      Shove.  I think this puts the pressure on him.  How does he feel (ICM) with AQ?  TT?   A loss f Both AQ and TT are plus chip EV, but both folds from and ICM point of view I’d wager. If he calls and loses, is he who has given up 30k (maybe more) in tournament EV.
3. 3    One (rejected out of hand by pros with who this was discussed) play is a min 4 bet.  Of course we fold to a shove, and have done half our stack (to 5m), but look at how strong this looks.  From his point of view we are never folding to the 5b, so we look (I think) like QQ+.  I think wagering and additional 3.3m to win 3.3m he’d have to fold half the time.  I’d say more like 75% is more likely.  If we win, we have 12m and we are even with him.  Of course there is something gross about turning 99 into a bluff here, and 4b folding from this stack looks horrible – but he knows this too.

I played one or two hands very well.  One of my leaks is being a calling station – I can talk myself into thinking villain is bluffing a lot more than he is.  One very aggressive big stack limped in the SB, I had Q6 suited.  Resisting the temptation to raise, we saw an AK3 rainbow flop and he bet half-pot.  This guy never ever has an ace or king here, so I called partly for value, and partly because I’m going to win here like always when he checks the turn.  The turn brought a 6 making my next play even easier, he bet less than half pot and we called.  The river brought a 5, and villain now bet pot.  I snap-called and he sheepishly turned over t9o.  The table ooh-and ahhed when I showed.  Easy game.

Perhaps a better played hand, and the last one, is KQo 5 handed at the final table.  I’m the chip lead again against the 2^nd place stack.  We are very close in chips with 7m each.  The blinds are 100/200k.  I open for 425k and he calls out of the BB.  The flop is A 8 3 rainbow and we check back. The turn is an 8, and he bets 450k, less than half pot.  We call, the river is a very friendly K and he bets 700k and shows JT when we call.

Being a calling station helps.  So does picking up AA twice with fewer than 18 left and having it hold.